A Hybrid Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm with Support Vector Machine for Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction

Abstract

Presently, the grid-connected scale from photovoltaic (PV) system is getting higher among renewable power generations. However, the PV output power can be affected by different meteorological conditions due to PV randomness and volatility. Accordingly, reasonable generation plans can be well arranged using accurate PV power prediction among various types of energy sources, thus reducing the effect of PV system on the grid. To resolve this problem, a PV output power prediction model, namely IMWOASVM, is proposed based on the combination of improved whale optimization algorithm (IMWOA) and support vector machine (SVM). The IMWOA is used to optimize the kernel function parameter and penalty coefficient in SVM. The optimal parameter and coefficient values can then be input to SVM for enhancing the PV prediction. The performance results verify that the coefficient of determination using the IMWOA model can reach beyond 99% in both sunny and cloudy days. Simultaneously, the mean absolute errors on sunny and cloudy days are 0.0251 and 0.0705, respectively. The root mean square errors in sunny and cloudy days are 2.17% and 1.03%, respectively. The results confirm that the proposed model effectively increases the accuracy of the PV output power prediction and is superior to existing methods.