Influence of population mobility on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic: based on panel data from Hubei, China

Abstract

Background: The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China. The mass population mobility in China during the Spring Festival has been considered a driver to the transmission of COVID-19, but it still needs more empirical discussion. Methods: Based on the panel data from Hubei, China between January 6th and February 6th, 2020, a random effects model was used to estimate the impact of population mobility on the transmission of COVID-19. Stata version 12.0 was used, and p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The COVID-19 was more likely to be confirmed within 11–12 days after people moved from Wuhan to 16 other prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province, which suggests a period of 11–12 days from contact to being confirmed. The daily confirmed cases and daily increment in incidence in 16 prefecture-level cities show obvious declines 9–12 days post adaptation of city lockdown at the local level. Conclusion: Population mobility is found to be a driver to the rapid transmission of COVID-19, and the lockdown intervention in local prefecture-level cities of Hubei Province has been an effective strategy to block the COVID-19 epidemic.