Safety risk assessment of space launch site considering human reliability

Abstract

This paper evaluates the safety risk of space launch site from the perspective of human reliability. Firstly, the risk causes are analyzed, and it is found that the main reason affecting the safety risk of space launch site is human error. Then, a modified CREAM is proposed to analyze the human reliability of risk events in space launch site. The method uses the fuzzy function to convert discrete CPCs and control modes into continuous, and apply Bayesian reasoning to obtain more accurate HEP. Finally, on the basis of HEP data, the Bayesian network of space launch site risk is constructed, and the risk probability of the overall system is evaluated and sensitivity analysis is carried out.