Economic evaluation of influenza pandemic mitigation strategies in the United States using a stochastic microsimulation transmission model

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Abstract

Objectives: To project the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies from a societal perspective in the United States. Methods: We use a stochastic agent-based model to simulate pandemic influenza in the community. We compare 17 strategies: targeted antiviral prophylaxis (TAP) alone and in combination with school closure as well as prevaccination. Results: In the absence of intervention, we predict a 50% attack rate with an economic impact of $187 per capita as loss to society. Full TAP (FTAP) is the most effective single strategy, reducing number of cases by 54% at the lowest cost to society ($127 per capita). Prevaccination reduces number of cases by 48% and is the second least costly alternative ($140 per capita). Adding school closure to FTAP or prevaccination further improves health outcomes but increases total cost to society by approximately $2700 per capita. Conclusion: FTAP is an effective and cost-saving measure for mitigating pandemic influenza. © 2008, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR).

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Sander, B., Nizam, A., Garrison, L. P., Postma, M. J., Halloran, M. E., & Longini, I. M. (2009). Economic evaluation of influenza pandemic mitigation strategies in the United States using a stochastic microsimulation transmission model. Value in Health, 12(2), 226–233. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1524-4733.2008.00437.x

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