We demonstrate the use of extended pairwise comparisons for estimating the relative likelihood that a vessel approaching US waters contains a nuclear threat. We demonstrate an expert judgment based method consisting of a designed set of extended pairwise comparisons and parameter estimation for a predictive probability model using log-linear regression. Results are based on a proof-of-concept questionnaire completed by eight experts in port security. The model and parameter estimates obtained are used to demonstrate the type of predictions that can be obtained.
CITATION STYLE
Merrick, J. R. W., & Albert, L. A. (2018). Expert judgment based nuclear threat assessment for vessels arriving in the US. In International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 261, pp. 495–509). Springer New York LLC. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_19
Mendeley helps you to discover research relevant for your work.