On using the seasonal cycle to interpret extratropical temperature changes since 1950

Abstract

Extratropical near-surface air temperature variability is explored on three different time scales: the seasonal cycle, observed changes in temperature since 1950, and the equilibrium response to increasing CO2 in an atmospheric general circulation simulation with fixed sea surface temperatures. Exploration is undertaken using an energy balance model (EBM) that parameterizes advective land-ocean heat fluxes. The EBM is tuned only to the climatological seasonal cycle yet captures 47% of the variability in observed multidecadal temperature changes in the extratropics and 78% of the variability in the equilibrated model simulation. The subseasonal time scale of atmosphere-surface heat fluxes explains, at least in the context of this EBM, the ability to infer patterns of multidecadal change using information primarily drawn from the seasonal cycle. Key Points A simple model represents land-ocean interactions from wind patterns The model is tuned to the seasonal cycle of temperature Predictions capture significant structure in decadal warming patterns ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.