Trends and patterns of fatal road accidents in Nigeria (2006-2014)

Abstract

Executive summary The incidence of fatal road accidents in Nigeria is phenomenal. Trend analysis of fatal road accidents between June 2006 and May 2014 using Nigeria Watch database shows that 15,090 lives were lost to fatal road accidents in 3,075 events. The highest fatality occurred in 2013 (2,061 deaths), a 2.8% increase from the 2012 record of 1,652 deaths. However, the probability of a high fatality record in 2014 remains high considering the 964 deaths already recorded between January and May 2014. On the national scene, Lagos recorded the highest number of fatalities (1,579 deaths from 620 events), while FCT (Abuja) has the highest relative number of deaths (0.6 deaths per 100,000 population). These findings are explained by the large population and continuous urbanization of Lagos and by the number of registered vehicles in the FCT (Abuja). On the regional level, a trend analysis shows that more people died in fatal road accidents in the South (8,288 people: 55%) than in the North (6,792 people: 45%). Among other factors, the volume of oil distribution and the occurrence of highway criminal activities explain why there are more fatal road accidents in the South than in the North. Finally, little correlation is found between political violence and accidents, except for the very few occasions when Boko Haram insurgents attacked and killed commuters in Borno State.