Effects of climate variables on the COVID-19 mortality in Bangladesh

Abstract

Infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza are influenced by weather conditions. Climate variables, for example, temperature and humidity, are two important factors in the severity of COVID-19’s impact on the human respiratory system. This study aims to examine the effects of these climate variables on COVID-19 mortality. The data are collected from March 08, 2020, to April 30, 2022. The parametric regression under GAM and semiparametric regression under GAMLSS frameworks are used to analyze the daily number of death due to COVID-19. Our findings revealed that temperature and relative humidity are commencing to daily deaths due to COVID-19. A positive association with COVID-19 daily death counts was observed for temperature range and a positive association for humidity. In addition, one-unit increase in daily temperature range was only associated with a 1.08% (95% CI: 1.06%, 1.10%), and humidity range was only associated with a 1.03% (95% CI: 1.02%, 1.03%) decrease in COVID-19 deaths. A flexible regression model within the framework of Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape is used to analyze the data by adjusting the time effect. We used two adaptable predictor models, such as (i) the Fractional polynomial model and (ii) the B-spline smoothing model, to estimate the systematic component of the GAMLSS model. According to both models, high humidity and temperature significantly (and drastically) lessened the severity of COVID-19 death. The findings on the epidemiological trends of the COVID-19 pandemic and weather changes may interest policymakers and health officials.