What is the role of performance self-assessments and expectations of success for the intention to pursue a Master’s degree?

Abstract

Rational choice theory suggests that expectations of success strongly influence an individual’s decision to commence graduate studies. The impact of self-assessments of one’s own abilities to succeed in a master’s program is, however, understudied compared to cost-benefit considerations. Furthermore, only little is known about the predictors of expectations of success. The present paper attempts to fill this gap. We conducted latent regression analyses based on cross-sectional data from an online survey of bachelor’s students at Freie Universität Berlin. Our results show that, first, expectations of success are a considerably stronger predictor of educational choices than cost-benefit considerations. Second, we find that individuals’ performance self-assessments have a significant influence on expectations of success, even when grades are controlled for. This is especially true for performance self-assessments regarding academic reading and writing.