Modelling Population Dynamics Using a Hybrid Simulation Approach: Application to Healthcare

Abstract

The goal of the study is presenting a population submodel developed using the system dynamics (SD) approach and discussing solutions for the integration of the SD methodology with discrete time control in formulating long-term projections for population evolution and its influence on healthcare demand. This study relies on historical demographic data and officially formulated scenarios for the most likely population projections for the Wrocław Region. The historical parameters are applied from 2002 to 2014, and projected trends are adopted for 2015 to 2035. The preliminary findings confirm the validity of using the hybrid simulation approach for a more advanced exploration of demography-dependent health policy issues.