Delay and Disruption in Complex Projects

Abstract

This paper describes the complexities associated with strategic workforce planning and how system dynamics has been applied in support of the workforce planning process. Workforce planning is the practice of determining the demand that will be placed on the workforce of an enterprise at some time in the future, in terms of required effort, and determining how this demand can best be met through developing workforce plans. For the purposes of this paper, an enterprise could be an organization in the public, private, or third sector or a national workforce capability. System dynamics is a modelling approach that enables complex systems to be better understood and their behavior over time to be projected using computer simulation. The method has been applied numerous times across different sectors to support workforce planning. This entry has been written with two audiences in mind: 1. People with an interest in workforce planning who seek more information about the system dynamics approach with respect to workforce planning and details about how it has been applied within the workforce planning process 2. System dynamics practitioners with the aim of better understanding the complexities associated with workforce planning and where it has been supported by system dynamics This paper is organized as follows. The next section defines what we mean by workforce planning and explains the complexities that need to be overcome. This is followed by a description of a general strategic workforce planning process and where systems approaches can be used to better understand and manage the associated complexity and uncertainty. A brief description of the system dynamics approach is then provided with respect to supporting strategic workforce planning. A review of the many applications of system dynamics to workforce planning is then presented. This includes a sector-based review of applications from the literature and a detailed case study where system dynamics was used to support national workforce planning in the English health and social care system. Finally, future directions for applying system dynamics for workforce planning are discussed.