Does unemployment have asymmetric effects on suicide rates? Evidence from the United States: 1928–2013

Abstract

This study applied the recently developed asymmetric causality test and asymmetric generalised impulse-response method to demonstrate the dynamic relationship between unemployment and suicide rates in the U.S. over the period of 1928–2013. The results suggest that there exist asymmetric effects of unemployment on suicide rates. An economic recession (in terms of an increase in unemployment rate) is more likely to increase the suicide rate among an old age group (55–64 years old) than among other age groups, while an economic expansion (in terms of a decrease in unemployment rate) is more likely to reduce the suicide rate of young (15–24 and 25–34 years old) and middle age groups (35–44 and 45–54 years old) than their counterpart. Therefore, policy implications generated from our results include the following: that intervention to prevent suicidal behaviour should be directed more towards the older age group during economic recession and that we may expect that an economic expansion may not result in a great reduction of suicide rates for the old age (55–64 years) group.