Future Strategy of Lifelong Education through Systems Analysis in Republic of Korea: Long-Term Research Conducted Based on Two Surveys in 2016 and 2023

Abstract

This study is a long-term research project on the Fourth and Fifth Comprehensive Lifelong Education Promotion Plan from 2018 to 2023. It explores factors and prospective scenarios of lifelong education to create the educational environment that is likely to be prevalent in Korea after 2035. First, internal factors affecting lifelong education in 2016 were gathered from a literature review and expert interviews, and external factors related to laws and policies were identified through surveys of 65 participants, including government officials, university representatives, and lifelong education companies. Second, a causal map was developed based on these results using the multi-factor system, a tool to design future policy directions. Third, scenarios for strategic environments based on uncertain future factors in the causal map were developed, and future strategies for these scenarios were identified. Among the identified future strategies, those applicable to all scenarios were selected via the wind tunneling method as important strategies that must be prioritized in the Fourth Comprehensive Lifelong Education Promotion Plan from 2018 to 2023, which was to be implemented by the Korean government in 2017. Lastly, the second survey was conducted in 2023 based on the first survey for comparison with the past outcome and to provide an outlook for the Fifth Comprehensive Lifelong Education Promotion Plan from 2024 to 2029, which is to be implemented by the Korean government in 2023. By analyzing various factors and environments, the results of this study are expected to be useful as a portfolio for developing policy designs to achieve desirable lifelong education for the future.