Prognosis-Predictive Signature and Nomogram Based on Autophagy-Related Long Non-coding RNAs for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Abstract

Autophagy plays a vital role in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) pathogenesis. Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are considered regulators of autophagy, and the aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic value of autophagy-related lncRNA (ARlncRNA) and develop a new prognostic signature to predict the 1-year and 3-year overall survival (OS) of HCC patients. Transcriptome and clinical survival information of HCC patients was obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. A set of ARlncRNAs was identified by co-expression analysis, from which seven ARlncRNAs (AC005229.4, AL365203.2, AL117336.3, AC099850.3, ELFN1-AS1, LUCAT1, and AL031985.3) were selected for use as a predictive signature. Risk scores were derived for each patient, who were then divided into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the median risk value. The OS of high-risk patients was significantly lower than that of low-risk patients (P < 0.0001). The 1- and 3-year time-dependent ROC curves were used to evaluate the predictive ability of the risk score (AUC = 0.785 of 1 year, 0.710 of 3 years), and its predictive ability was found to be better than TNM stage. Moreover, the risk score was significantly, linearly related to pathological grade and TNM stage (P < 0.05). Overall, a novel nomogram to predict the 1-year and 3-year OS of HCC patients was developed, which shows good reliability and accuracy, for use in improved treatment decision-making.