A novel coefficient for detecting and quantifying asymmetry of California electricity market based on asymmetric detrended cross-correlation analysis

Abstract

In order to detect and quantify asymmetry of two time series, a novel cross-correlation coefficient is proposed based on recent asymmetric detrended cross-correlation analysis (A-DXA), which we called A-DXA coefficient. The A-DXA coefficient, as an important extension of DXA coefficient ρDXA, contains two directional asymmetric cross-correlated indexes, describing upwards and downwards asymmetric cross-correlations, respectively. By using the information of directional covariance function of two time series and directional variance function of each series itself instead of power-law between the covariance function and time scale, the proposed A-DXA coefficient can well detect asymmetry between the two series no matter whether the cross-correlation is significant or not. By means of the proposed A-DXA coefficient conducted over the asymmetry for California electricity market, we found that the asymmetry between the prices and loads is not significant for daily average data in 1999 yr market (before electricity crisis) but extremely significant for those in 2000 yr market (during the crisis). To further uncover the difference of asymmetry between the years 1999 and 2000, a modified H statistic (MH) and ΔMH statistic are proposed. One of the present contributions is that the high MH values calculated for hourly data exist in majority months in 2000 market. Another important conclusion is that the cross-correlation with downwards dominates over the whole 1999 yr in contrast to the cross-correlation with upwards dominates over the 2000 yr.