From global order to global transition order: Russia and the future of international relations

Abstract

The world entered the era of change no later than the second half of the 2000s; however, analysts still lack a common understanding of the conditions that surrounded the disintegration of the former world order as well as of the processes, horizons and results of the transition to a new global order. This article discusses what exactly is in store for Russia and when—a growing global disorder caused by the collapse of international institutions created after World War II, the preservation of American domination, or something else? It was the United States that started revising the world order; therefore, Russia’s behavior can be considered revisionist only in relation to Washington’s revisionist strategy imposed on it. The current post-Washington world transition is analyzed here in the context of theoretical studies concerning the previous post-Vienna, post-Paris, post-Versailles and post-Yalta transitions and their historical experience. The article concludes that the current post-Washington transition is irreversible, yet it may take more time than the previous ones and extend beyond 2050. Each country will have to rethink its place and strategy of struggle for survival and development in the new transitional world. Russia is still working to define its strategy, and the success will depend on a combination of asymmetric resistance aimed at upholding the country’s vital interests in the world, active efforts to build a new world order, and domestic reforms required for that.