15th General Election: What Are the Factors Determining the Electoral Results?

Abstract

The 15th general election held on 19th November 2022 was the most intense and unpredictable in the Malaysian electoral history. This is due to the fact that there were four main coalitions contesting in the Peninsular Malaysia, namely Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH), Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Gerakan Tanah air (GTA). The 15th general election took place in the midst of political turmoil in Malaysia stemming from the previous 14th general election whereby within approximately four years, Malaysia had experienced three alternating governments. This study aims to analyze the results of the 15th general election as well as examining the factors that shaped the results. This study uses qualitative method via analysis of commentary and observation on the political landscape of Malaysia circa the date of the dissolution of parliament on 20th October until the polling day. The study finds that subsequent to the announcement of the 15th general election results, no one party had secured an easy majority victory resulting in a hung parliament. The coalition which garnered the most seats won was Pakatan Harapan at 82 seats followed by Perikatan Nasional at 73 seats and Barisan Nasional at 30 seats. In addition, this election also witnessed the declined support for Pakatan Harapan, even more deteriorating for Barisan Nasional, while drastic increase of support was seen for Perikatan Nasional. A variety of factors were identified as instrumental to the results such as poor leadership, young voters and social media campaign.