Behavioral Economics: its influence on the prediction of sports results

Abstract

Behavioral Economics provides valuable knowledges on the operation of economic agents, away from the conception of unlimited rationality. Currently it applied in many areas of social life such as behavioral finance, neuromarketing, public policies, savings, public health, etc. Games activity generates random significant economic results and the number of people who bet grows every year. In this scenario sports predictions must be analyzed from the insight provided by behavioral economics to understand the determinants of the decisions of individuals. The present study aims to analyze the presence of cognitive biases affecting the prediction of sports results. an experiment in theoretical orientation of pre-experimental type was designed with the participation of 66 subjects, who were to make estimates sports scores from 6 scenarios created. It can be concluded that sports predictions operate under the principle of limited rationality, presenting characteristics of intuitive thinking in decisions, as well as the representativeness heuristic and optimism biases, over-inference, hot hand and small numbers. The findings of this pre-experiment point to the presence of excess confidence in previous knowledge, experience and intuition, undervaluation of statistical information and influence of affective components in decisions about sports prediction.