Future Trends in International Terrorism

Abstract

The increasing availability of arms, the growing mobility as a result of air travel, and the increasing sophistication of television coverage make terrorism likely to persist and increase. Ideology and ethnic nationalism are likely to continue to be major motivating factors. Although most terrorist incidents do not involve fatalities, people have increasingly become targets. Terrorists themselves say that they are likely to use the same basic tactics as in the past: bombings, assassinations, armed assaults, kidnappings, hijackings, and other kinds of hostage seizures. Future targets are also likely to be similar to present ones, consisting mainly of diplomats, airlines, corporations, corporate executives, and military officials. They will probably use more sophisticated explosives and standoff weapons, such as rocket launchers and precision-guided munitions. Terrorism and the security measures taken against it will become an accepted fact of contemporary life. 3 figures.