Vulnerability of rainfed maize crops in Mexico to climate change

Abstract

The impacts of a potential climate change on rainfed maize crops in Mexico are analyzed. For that purpose, baseline scenarios based on current climate conditions and their relation with maize crop development were created. Climate change scenarios were further developed and the crop vulnerability under each scenario was assessed. Two methods were used to quantify vulnerability. In the first place, maps describing the suitability for crop production according to climate conditions were produced. The differences between the baseline and the climate change scenarios allowed for estimating the area of the country likely to be positively or negatively affected. Secondly, the CERES-Maize model was applied to estimate rainfed maize crop yields at 7 sites in Mexico under the baseline and climate change scenarios. Adaptive measures were proposed and their feasibility was assessed on the basis of a simple cost-benefit analysis.