Declining potential of local food supplies to satisfy urban demand during 1990‒2015 and the resulting implications for urban food security

Abstract

This study developed the two new indexes, the distance to the nearest cropland (DTNC) of urban residents and the foodshed radius of urban residents (FRUR), to evaluate the potential of China's local food system to sustainably meet urban food needs. The results found that the per-capita DTNC increased by 53% over 1990−2015, with a total increase of 8.2 × 106 km on a national scale; the FRUR estimated on a “business-as-usual” basis was estimated to be 10.1 km. This study further predicted that stress on local food supplies will continue increasing until the 2040s, particularly in mega-urban areas. Appropriate spatial planning regarding the distribution of cropland and urban areas is necessary for mega-urban regions to cope with crisis situations when the external food supply is restricted. Such planning will ultimately ensure the long-term sustainability of urban areas.