Q fever: Evidence of a massive yet undetected cross-border outbreak, with ongoing risk of extra mortality, in a Dutch–German border region

Abstract

Background: Following outbreaks in other parts of the Netherlands, the Dutch border region of South Limburg experienced a large-scale outbreak of human Q fever related to a single dairy goat farm in 2009, with surprisingly few cases reported from neighbouring German counties. Late chronic Q fever, with recent spikes of newly detected cases, is an ongoing public health concern in the Netherlands. We aimed to assess the scope and scale of any undetected cross-border transmission to neighbouring German counties, where individuals unknowingly exposed may carry extra risk of overlooked diagnosis. Methods: (A) Seroprevalence rates in the Dutch area were estimated fitting an exponential gradient to the geographical distribution of notified acute human Q fever cases, using seroprevalence in a sample of farm township inhabitants as baseline. (B) Seroprevalence rates in 122 neighbouring German postcode areas were estimated from a sample of blood donors living in these areas and attending the regional blood donation centre in January/February 2010 (n = 3,460). (C) Using multivariate linear regression, including goat and sheep densities, veterinary Q fever notifications and blood donor sampling densities as covariates, we assessed whether seroprevalence rates across the entire border region were associated with distance from the farm. Results: (A) Seroprevalence in the outbreak farm's township was 16.1%. Overall seroprevalence in the Dutch area was 3.6%. (B) Overall seroprevalence in the German area was 0.9%. Estimated mean seroprevalence rates (per 100,000 population) declined with increasing distance from the outbreak farm (0–19 km = 2,302, 20–39 km = 1,122, 40–59 km = 432 and ≥60 km = 0). Decline was linear in multivariate regression using log-transformed seroprevalence rates (0–19 km = 2.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.6 to 3.2], 20 to 39 km = 1.9 [95% CI = 1.0 to 2.8], 40–59 km = 0.6 [95% CI = −0.2 to 1.3] and ≥60 km = 0.0 [95% CI = −0.3 to 0.3]). Conclusions: Our findings were suggestive of widespread cross-border transmission, with thousands of undetected infections, arguing for intensified cross-border collaboration and surveillance and screening of individuals susceptible to chronic Q fever in the affected area.