Improving Daily Peak Flow Forecasts Using Hybrid Fourier-Series Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Recurrent Artificial Neural Network Models

Abstract

In multi-purpose reservoirs, to achieve optimal operation, sophisticated models are required to forecast reservoir inflow in both short- and long-horizon times with an acceptable accuracy, particularly for peak flows. In this study, an auto-regressive hybrid model is proposed for long-horizon forecasting of daily reservoir inflow. The model is examined for a one-year horizon forecasting of high-oscillated daily flow time series. First, a Fourier-Series Filtered Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (FSF-ARIMA) model is applied to forecast linear behavior of daily flow time series. Second, a Recurrent Artificial Neural Network (RANN) model is utilized to forecast FSF-ARIMA model’s residuals. The hybrid model follows the detail of observed flow time variation and forecasted peak flow more accurately than previous models. The proposed model enhances the ability to forecast reservoir inflow, especially in peak flows, compared to previous linear and nonlinear auto-regressive models. The hybrid model has a potential to decrease maximum and average forecasting error by 81% and 80%, respectively. The results of this investigation are useful for stakeholders and water resources managers to schedule optimum operation of multi-purpose reservoirs in controlling floods and generating hydropower.