Grab and gone: expert perspectives on innovation to diffusion of direct air carbon capture and storage technology

Abstract

As the urgency to limit global warming has intensified, negative emissions technology such as direct air capture and carbon sequestration are increasingly considered in climate mitigation scenarios. When Iceland opened the commercial-grade direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) facility in 2021, this marked a breakthrough for DACCS technology as a scalable climate mitigation solution. This study investigates the adoption of DACCS in Iceland and the potential for diffusion into other contexts as a global decarbonization solution. We implement expert interviews to analyze the adoption of technology, and to identify the various requirements of scaling DACCS into local and global contexts. Using inductive thematic analysis, we characterize the diverging perspectives on the role of carbon dioxide removal as a climate mitigation solution and also identify pathways toward technology upscaling at national, regional, and global scales. Despite the successful technology demonstration of DACCS, we find that experts hold different mental models of climate mitigation generally, characterized as “nature vs. technology.” We also find that experts clearly articulate the necessary conditions for the diffusion of DACCS more broadly, including explicit regulatory measures as guardrails against a “license to pollute” as well as bilateral governance structures that include financial investment. Finally, we find that the importance of public acceptance of the technology was noted among all expert groups. Limited data exist on the acceptance of DACCS paired with renewable energy and this is a future research recommendation.