foreMast: an R package for predicting beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) masting events in European countries

Abstract

Key message: Forecasting annual seed production will improve the management of forests across Europe. The foreMast R package we developed predicts current year masting probability in beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) using climate data easily accessible by any stakeholder. Context: Modelling and predicting forest masting is one of the most challenging tasks in forest management, as it is a strategy shared by several species, very important for tree dispersion and forest regeneration, mainly related to climate and ecological processes. Aims: As many studies focus on European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) masting without simple practical implementations, we developed a tool capable of predicting beech masting years. Methods: The tool is an R package (foreMast) made by three functions, which relies mainly on climate data. The algorithm performance is compared with the records of the MASTREE database, which gather several beech seed production series for various sites across European countries. Results: Overall, the results show a tight correlation with the compared sites (ρ = 0.50 to 0.61, p-value < 0.0001, respectively), especially when temperatures weigh three times more than precipitation. Nevertheless, in some sites, seed production seems to be more related to precipitation dynamics than to temperatures. Conclusion: foreMast can be used both for studying changes in mast events in relation to climate changes and in operative forest management and planning. It is flexible and thus amenable to future implementation of additional predicting variables or target species.