Preparing for the Aftermath of a Nuclear Detonation; An Analytic Framework for Disaster Management

Abstract

Preparedness activities for complex, technical hazards require a sound scientific basis integrated into appropriate guidelines and preparedness activities. The Federal Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation provides the strategy for response to an improvised nuclear device detonation and was built on an analytical framework of supporting science developed by national laboratories and other technical organizations. Recent advances in our understanding of the hazards posed by such an event includes detailed fallout predictions from the advanced suite of three-dimensional meteorology and plume/fallout models developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, including extensive global geographical and realtime meteorological databases to support model calculations. This is an updated case study of the analytic framework for disaster management being applied to response preparedness. The methodology and results, including visualization aids developed for response organizations, have greatly enhanced the community planning process through first-person points of view and description of the dynamic nature of the event.