Age-period-cohort analysis of kidney cancer deaths attributable to high body-mass index in China and U.S. adults

Abstract

Background: Statistical data on burden of kidney cancer and the relavant risk factors are valuable for policy-making. This study aims to estimate kidney cancer deaths and high body-mass index (BMI) attributable to the deaths by gender and age group in China adults, compared with U.S. Methods: We extracted kidney cancer data (1990-2017) about the age-standardized rates using the comparative risk assessment framework of the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. We performed an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to estimate trends of kidney cancer mortality attributable to high BMI. Results: During 1990-2017, age-standardized mortality rate of kidney cancer was increasing in China but decreasing in U.S. The mortality attributable to high BMI in China showed a general increasing trend, while that in U.S. men was increasing and tended to be stable in women since 1995. APC analysis showed a similar pattern of age effect between China and U.S. adults, which substantially increased from 20 to 24 to 90-94 age group. Differently, the period effect rapidly increased in China than U.S. adults during 1990-2017. The cohort effect peaked in the earlier cohort born in 1902-1906 in China, and it declined consistently in U.S. with exception of 1902-1906 and 1907-1911 birth cohort. Conclusions: The kidney cancer deaths attributable to high BMI, and period effect have been generally increasing in China adults, compared with U.S. adults in which the trend tends to be stable in recent years. The rapid aging may also intensify the increasing trend of kidney cancer death in China. Effective measures should be conducted on body weight control and care for kidney cancer prevention.