Role of committed minorities in times of crisis

Abstract

The surprising social phenomena of the Arab Spring and the Occupy Wall Street movement posit the question of whether the active role of committed groups may produce political changes of significant importance. Under what conditions are the convictions of a minority going to dominate the future direction of a society? We address this question with the help of a Cooperative Decision Making model (CDMM) which has been shown to generate consensus through a phase-transition process. We observe that in a system of a finite size the global consensus state is not permanent and times of crisis occur when there is an ambiguity concerning a given social issue. The correlation function within the cooperative system becomes similarly extended as it is observed at criticality. This combination of independence (free will) and long-range correlation makes it possible for very small but committed minorities to produce substantial changes in social consensus.