Understanding the dynamics of the covid-19 pandemic: A real-time analysis of switzerland’s first wave

Abstract

Since the novel coronavirus outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 from the first cases whereof were reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, our globalized world has changed enormously. On the 11th of March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic, and nations around the world have taken drastic measures to reduce transmission of the disease. The situation is similar in Switzerland, a small high-income country in Central Europe, where the first COVID-19 case was registered on the 25th of February 2020. Through literature review as well as correspondence with public health professionals and experts in mathematical modeling, this case study focuses on the outbreak’s impact on Switzerland and on the measures this country has implemented thus far. Along with the rapid spread of the virus, the political organization, economy, healthcare system, and characteristics of the country greatly influence the approach taken in facing the crisis. Switzerland appears to be structurally well-prepared, but, according to mathematical modeling predictions, in order to avoid total collapse of healthcare facilities, the measures taken by the Swiss Government need to reduce the virus transmission chain by at least 70%. Fortunately, updated models on April 22nd show evidence that the non-pharmaceutical measures invoked have decreased transmission by an estimated 89%, proving effective management by the federal government and allowing for progressive deconfinement measures.