Comparison of non-homogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting

Abstract

In weather forecasting, nonhomogeneous regression is used to statistically postprocess forecast ensembles in order to obtain calibrated predictive distributions. For wind speed forecasts, the regression model is given by a truncated normal distribution where location and spread are derived from the ensemble. This paper proposes two alternative approaches which utilize the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. A direct alternative to the truncated normal regression is to apply a predictive distribution from the GEV family, while a regime switching approach based on the median of the forecast ensemble incorporates both distributions. In a case study on daily maximum wind speed over Germany with the forecast ensemble from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, all three approaches provide calibrated and sharp predictive distributions with the regime switching approach showing the highest skill in the upper tail.