Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union Formation in the Transition to Adulthood?

Abstract

Objective: This study describes the association between explicit expectations of divorce and subsequent first union formation during the transition to adulthood (ages 18–28). Background: Expectations for marriage in young adulthood predict union formation. Even before marrying, young adults may express a perceived risk of eventual divorce, and expectations of divorce may also have implications for union formation during the transition to adulthood. Method: Data from the 2005 to 2015 years of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Supplement (n = 2,052) were used to estimate the association between expectations of divorce and entry into first premarital cohabitation and first marriage using discrete-time logistic and multinomial logistic survival models. Results: As hypothesized, greater expectations for divorce predicted slower entrance into first marriage, even when controlling for expectations for marriage and various sociodemographic characteristics, and predicted a greater likelihood of both remaining single and being first observed cohabiting instead of marrying in young adulthood for both men and women. Conclusion: Despite desiring to marry, young adults may delay marriage if they are concerned about their risk of future divorce.