Understanding the complexity of intelligence problems

Abstract

The complexity of an intelligence problem determines to a great extent the certainty that can be provided by intelligence and security services. This article will argue this deductively and validate this claim using a set of intelligence reports produced by the Dutch Intelligence & Security Service (AIVD). A better understanding of how the level of complexity affects intelligence analysis is helpful for the further (academic) study of analysis methodologies, as well as for managing expectations of intelligence clients, and for informing the debates over legislation that affects intelligence and security services.