A Hydrodynamic-Based Physical Unified Modeling for Simulating Shallow Landslide Local Failures, Mass Release and Debris Flow Run-Out Extent Behavior

Abstract

Accurate prediction of shallow landslide occurrence and the subsequent motion range after transformation into debris flows is crucial for reducing disaster-induced losses. The use of Cellular Automata-based (CA) hydrodynamic models has seen increasing application in predicting landslides, debris flows, and other related hazards. However, previous CA-based models have primarily focused on the motion and evolution process of debris flows, lacking detailed description about the dynamic instability associated with shallow landslides. In this study, we propose a comprehensive CA-based model that is based on existing theories and improved models for simulating hydrological processes, sliding surface identification algorithms, threshold-based mechanical interactions, material entrainment, and deposition. The model was applied to the Yindongzi (YDZ) landslides in Sichuan, China. The accuracy of the model was validated through comparisons with field investigation results and calculations based on shallow water equations. This model enables efficient and rapid prediction of shallow landslide occurrence time, volume, spatial distribution, and runout distance. Evaluation of the model’s predictive performance reveals an error range of −23.12% to +44.26% for YDZ landslides. Moreover, the influence of different shallow landslide failure patterns on the deposition and erosion of debris flows was analyzed. The results indicate that the failure patterns of shallow landslides significantly affect the deposition and entrainment capacity of debris flows. This study provides a novel approach for predicting the occurrence of shallow landslides and the subsequent motion, entrainment, and deposition after transformation into debris flows.