Assessment of future urban water demand and supply under socioeconomic scenarios: a case of Assosa town

Abstract

Water scarcity is becoming a progressively more serious global issue. Assosa town in Ethiopia faces serious water scarcity problems due to rapid population growth and urban expansion. This study aims to model the water demand of Assosa town using a forecasting model. Four scenarios were developed: population growth, living standards, water loss reduction, and a combination of these. The water demand and unmet demands for each scenario were evaluated. Results show that the demand for water and supply will vary significantly if the present state continues. In the base year (2018), the overall water demand is 2.07 gigalitres (GL) and the unmet demand is estimated as 0.096 GL. The water demand grows to 3.71 GL under the reference scenario in 2035. The combination of population growth and improved living standard scenarios is observed to impact greatly on water demand. The total water demand of this scenario was estimated to be 7.14 GL latterly in the projection period and the unmet demand would grow to 5.2 GL. The results confirmed that improved water management approaches are needed in the town to ensure the sustainability of water resources in the long term and outline proper water utilization policies.