Real-time prediction of Sidr cyclone over bay of bengal using high-resolution mesoscale models

Abstract

Tropical cyclones are known to be the most devastating of all natural disasters. These are intense vortices associated with lower surface pressure, strong winds exceeding 16 m/s, torrential rains, and storm surge. Numerical models based on well-defined dynamical and physical processes provide quantitative weather prediction. Numerical modeling studies of tropical cyclones are being continuously attempted since the 1960s to understand the physical and dynamical mechanisms of tropical cyclone development and movement. With the developments in atmospheric modeling and computer technology, mesoscale atmospheric models with non-hydrostatic dynamics are currently being used for tropical cyclone studies. In the present study, real-time numerical prediction experiments were performed of an intense tropical cyclone Sidr over the North Indian Ocean with NCAR WRF and MM5 models. The model-predicted intensification and movement of the tropical cyclone with these two different models have been compared to discuss the relative merits of MM5 and WRF mesoscale models. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.