Climate-driven changes in CO2 emissions associated with residential heating and cooling demand by end-century in China

Abstract

Global climate change affects residential heating and cooling demand that further contributes to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The spatio-temporal changes in magnitude and distribution of the demands in China are poorly understood. In addition, few studies have focused on the future impact of climate change on long term residential CO2 emissions in China. Here we investigate regional changes in CO2 emissions calculated from degree-days. Our results show that heating degree-days (HDD), cooling degree-days (CDD) and their associated CO2 emissions all have large spatio-temporal variability. We find that average durations of HDD and CDD are predicted to be 34 days shorter and 63 days longer by the end of century (2071-2100) than history (1976-2005). CO2 emissions from residential cooling and heating are predicted to increase 218% and decrease 30% in China by end-century, respectively. We further examine the CO2 emissions from residential heating and cooling in five cities representative of five contrasting architectural climate zones in China. The CO2 emissions from heating of these cities are projected to decrease by end-century: 26% in Harbin, 32% in Beijing, 43% in Shanghai, 42% in Kunming, and 61% in Shenzhen. The CO2 emissions from cooling of these cities all increase by end-century: 436% in Harbin, 215% in Beijing, 223% in Shanghai, 765% in Kunming, and 149% in Shenzhen.