Integrating forecast effects and operational behaviour in designing the Rotterdam storm surge barrier

Abstract

To be feasible the barrier had to meet two main goals: 1) closing frequency less than once every 10 years, 2) prescribed reduction of design water levels (DWL) at two representative locations. The DWL, a water level with a prescribed frequency of exceedance, strongly determines the safety against flooding. The DWL is affected by barrier closure. Because of its statistical nature, the DWL can only be determined by probabilistic calculation. By means of a hydraulic network model the probability distribution functions of the boundary conditions are transformed into probability distribution functions of the water levels in the delta area. The hydraulic loads on the barrier are calculated as well. In these calculations both the operational behaviour of the barrier and the accuracy of Predicted Maximum Sea Level (PMSL) play a central role. -Authors