Agricultural Self-sufficiency and Market Stability: A Revenue-neutral Approach to Wheat Sector in Egypt

Abstract

Food self-sufficiency has become a high-priority policy agenda for developing governments in conjunction with the food price volatility in recent years. Even though a food autarky has been long regarded as one of the most potent strategies to achieve national food security, the effectiveness of the policy has not been investigated using a quantitative simulation model. In this paper, a stochastic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the benefits of a wheat self-sufficiency project in Egypt is constructed. The findings suggest that the policy alleviates the volatility of household welfare and the consumer price of wheat in Egypt, and substantially enhances the resilience of welfare against an export ban on wheat by Russia.