Estimating driver crash risks based on the extended Bradley-Terry model: An induced exposure method

Abstract

Quantifying driver crash risks has been difficult because the exposure data are often incompatible with crash frequency data. Induced exposure methods provide a promising idea that a relative measurement of driver crash risks can be derived solely from crash frequency data. This paper describes an application of the extended Bradley-Terry model for paired preferences to estimating driver crash risks. We estimate the crash risk for driver groups defined by driver-vehicle characteristics from log-linear models in terms of a set of relative risk scores by using only crash frequency data. Illustrative examples using police-reported crash data from Hawaii are presented.