Scarcity, promethean technology, and future perspectives for fossil fuels and uranium

Abstract

This chapter presents various aspects of scarcity, the nature of Promethean technology, and future perspectives for fossil fuels and uranium. Reconsideration is given to three crucial aspects of scarcity originally conceptualized within the framework of conventional economics, i.e. limitless wants compared with limited resources and goods, the substitution concept related to scarcity, and scarcity related to the issue of a fair allocation of resources. The discussion of scarcity is also related to five aspects of the finiteness of resources and environmental constraints for sustainability. A new energy transformation scheme is introduced to deal with the metabolic pattern of society. The new transformation scheme allows a consistent and precise definition of both feasible technology and Promethean technology. A reexamination of future perspectives for coal, oil, natural gas and uranium is conducted. Special attention is also paid to aviation fuel such as aviation gasoline and jet fuels, due to an anticipated future increased demand for that particular variety of fuel. The dream of a nuclear fuel cycle, i.e. transforming uranium-238 into plutonium in a fast breed reactor, is shown to be a delusion. A brief discussion is provided concerning the prospects of shale gas and methane hydrate as alternative primary energy sources.