Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the At-Risk Species Anaxyrus microscaphus (The Arizona Toad): A Local and Range-Wide Habitat Suitability Analysis

Abstract

Anaxyrus microscaphus (The Arizona Toad) is an at-risk species that is endemic to the southwestern United States. Despite conservation concerns, little is known about the ecological drivers of its distribution and habitat use. We investigated the potential distribution of A. microscaphus at the range-wide scale and local scales (i.e., Zion National Park), using MaxEnt to model habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios. Our models incorporated 12 environmental variables, including climatic, geomorphological, and remotely sensed data. The results showed good model accuracy, with temperature and elevation being the top contributing variables. Currently, 42.6% of the park’s area provides a suitable habitat for A. microscaphus, but projections for 2050 and 2070 indicate a significant reduction in suitable habitat across its range. Temperature was the most influential variable, with habitat suitability decreasing as the annual mean temperatures exceeded 10 °C. Precipitation, vegetation, and topography variables also significantly contributed to the models. The most suitable habitat within Zion National Park occurred along sloped rivers and streams and in valleys with sandy soils, emphasizing the importance of riparian habitat conservation for A. microscaphus survival and persistence. As climate change progresses, the species’ habitat is expected to become increasingly constrained across local and range-wide scales. Our models demonstrated a shift in the suitable habitat towards major river systems, indicating a potential reliance on larger permanent river systems as smaller, more ephemeral habitats decrease in size and abundance. Future management strategies should prioritize conserving and enhancing the resilience of these habitats. MaxEnt models can guide population survey efforts and facilitate the identification of priority conservation areas, saving time and resources for species of concern such as A. microscaphus. Further research, including field surveys and large-scale analyses, is necessary to further refine our understanding of this species’ distribution and how it may be impacted by climate and habitat change.