Water stress and water wars

Abstract

This essay argues three propositions: (1) by 2025 roughly one third of the world's population will be living in countries which are water-stressed, at least by conventional criteria; (2) nevertheless, macro evidence does not portend that the world will be unable to feed its growing population at that time; (3) interstate armed conflicts over water, which were not very important in the last quarter of the twentieth century, seem unlikely to become more intense in the coming decades, especially since most countries have not utilized the enormous possibilities for saving scarce water.