Estimating casualties for the Southern California ShakeOut

Abstract

Casualty estimation methodologies generally provide estimates of ­injuries in categories that are not ideal for healthcare preparedness efforts. In order for healthcare planners to make use of casualty estimates, the results must be developed in a format that provides them with information on the types of resources that might be required for treatment. This paper describes the various casualty models used to estimate injuries and deaths that might occur in the M7.8 “ShakeOut” Scenario on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California, using a recommended, medically meaningful, categorisation scheme.