Back-analysis of the paraglacial slope failure at Grewingk Glacier and Lake, Alaska

Abstract

The relationship between rock-slope failure and glacier retreat is complex, and paraglacial failures often lack clearly identified triggers. To better understand the role of glacier retreat in rock-slope failures, we analysed the processes that led to the October 1967 Grewingk landslide in Kachemak Bay State Park on the Kenai Peninsula, Southcentral Alaska. The rock material collapsed onto the glacier toe and into its pro-glacial lake and produced a tsunami wave that swept the outwash plain. On the day of the failure, rainfall and snowmelt were well within normal ranges, and seismic records show no significant shaking. Three years prior to the 1967 failure, the slope withstood the second largest earthquake ever recorded (Great Alaskan earthquake, MW 9.2). We reassessed the volume of the failure by differencing pre- and post-digital terrain models and found a value of 20–24 × 106 m3, which is four times smaller than a previous estimate. The back analysis of the Grewingk landslide is based on remote sensing data and field measurements including aerial satellite image analysis, detailed surveying and understanding of the structural geology, a kinematic analysis, and runout modelling. Our research provides an example of a major paraglacial failure that lacks an obvious trigger and points to several geological factors and changing environmental conditions that likely promote such failures. This study further indicates that the Grewingk landslide, pre-conditioned by the geometry of faults and joints, may have reached a critical stability state due to internal processes and the potential combined effects of seismic activity and glacier retreat prior to the collapse.