Spatial variation of elderly population and its dynamics in Turkey

Abstract

As the world population is getting older, care for elderly and procurement to their special needs gains importance for both national and local governments. Therefore, distribution of elderly population and their (residential) mobility behaviours gains importance to improve policies coupled in this respect. However, although demographic processes can easily be monitored and projected over time for a country, estimating distribution of certain population cohorts over space (elderly population in our case) entails difficulties. Indeed, elderly population does not show a uniform distribution in space. This study investigates spatial variation and dynamics of elderly population in Turkey, where elderly population is percolating unevenly in space. We devise two complementary ANCOVA models and a structural equations model, which suggest a disproportionate and growing share of elderly in small, inner and coastal areas, especially sun-belt coastal districts. We conclude the study with prospective policies for elderly for central and local governments. Our findings suggest inclusive and attentive policies geared to spatial reflections of demographic processes. In particular, we favour policies focused on improved services for the elderly and spatial planning considering special populations groups, one of which is elderly population.