La prédiction des résultats électoraux au Canada: Un modèle politico-économique sans sondage

Abstract

Election forecasting is now a thriving discipline in the United States, where a large number of different models are being used to forecast the outcome of congressional elections or the fate of presidential candidates. Although forecasting models have been developed for France, Germany and the United Kingdom over the past years, Canada, like most other democracies, has received very little attention. Consequently, the goal of this article is to develop a theoretically-driven model that can be used to predict the popular vote share of the incumbent party in Canadian federal elections with sufficient lead time. Since Canada is a multiparty system, we also propose different seemingly unrelated regression models to determine if it is possible to simultaneously predict the vote share received by multiple political parties.