Potential for an Impact of Global Climate Change on Insect Herbivory in Cereal Crops

Abstract

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have attained a higher level (>400 ppm) than at any time in recent geological history (>800 K years), and the global climate has been consistently warmer during the 2000s than at any time since records began over 150 years ago. These changes will affect the behavior and population dynamics of herbivorous arthropods and their natural enemies. Herbivore populations or their overwintering ranges may shift poleward, or to higher elevations, herbivores may increase the number of generations they complete (voltinism) during a crop cycle or alter migration routes in response to changing wind patterns. However, the expansion of distribution ranges, increasing voltinism, greater functional efficiency at high temperatures, and a high degree of plasticity among the arthropod natural enemies of crop pests will reduce the potential impacts of climate change on pest damage to crops. Agroecology and crop diversification can increase food-web complexity to provide stability of pest and natural enemy populations and resilience to crop production systems under a future warmer climate. This chapter highlights the need to acknowledge the ecological complexity of crop arthropod communities if we are to better develop future, climate-resilient production systems that avoid potential pest problems and maintain or increase agricultural productivity. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020.