Socio-Economic Development and Primary Energy Sources Substitution Towards Decarbonization

Abstract

Scanning the last 250 years, we can observe five great technological transformations that happened in the socio-economic development. On the other hand, there is a relationship between the socioeconomic development and the substitution process of primary energy sources. Since the industrial revolution, there has been a smooth but growing substitution among primary energy sources. First the swith from wood to coal, then this last one by oil and natural gas. These are non-solid fossils, which leads to a decrease of the carbonic intensit. These substitutions implied some important technological transformations. Bearing in mind a sustainable development of energy systems and using technological forescasting tolls, this study points out to the leadership of the alternative energies among the primary energy sources until 2050-2070. In this sense, even with the predictable overall increase of energy consuption, this study also shows that through the substitution dynamic it is possible not only to reduce the carbonic intensit, but also to reduce the carbonic emission in absolute termsform 2040.2060 on.