Storm prediction over Europe using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

Abstract

Three severe storms caused great damage in Europe in December 1999. The first storm hit Denmark and Germany on 3 and 4 December, and the other two storms crossed France and Germany on 26 and 28 December. In this study, the performance of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) in predicting these intense storms is investigated. Results indicate that the EPS gave early indications of possible severe storm occurrence, and was especially useful when the deterministic TL319L60 forecasts issued on successive days were highly inconsistent. These results indicate that the EPS is a valuable tool for assessing quantitatively the risk of severe weather and issuing early warnings of possible disruptions The impact of an increase of the ensemble system horizontal resolution (TL255 integration from a TL511 analysis instead of the operational TL159 integration from a TL319 analysis) on the system performance is also investigated. Results show that the resolution increase enhances the ensemble performance in predicting the position and the intensity of intense storms.