Energy Demand and GHG Mitigation Options

Abstract

This chapter presents an analysis of the conditions under which energy can be a lever of sustainable development for the N. Africa (The countries considered are: Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.) countries in the context of intensification of greenhouse gas abatement policies. The analysis begins with the identification of the distribution, uses and potential uses of the energy resources in the N. African countries. Then growth opportunities for N. African economies are examined in the context of an increasing intensity of climate policy and of a widening of its geographical scope providing opportunities for cross border integration of energy markets, for extension of emission permit markets and the use of JI and CDM development mechanisms (JI (Joint Implementation) and CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) are market instruments introduced in the Kyoto Protocol). In particular, alternative scenario simulations are used to analyze how the N. African countries may gain from incorporation into Europe’s greenhouse gas abatement effort. From a methodological point of view the analysis is performed by means of a computable general equilibrium model, named GEM-E3-Med, specifically constructed for the CIRCE project (CIRCE Integrated Project – Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment. Supported by the European Commission’s Sixth Framework Programme, Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems). The analysis is quantitative and focuses on the effect of alternative scenarios on competitiveness, welfare, employment and economic growth of the Mediterranean economies and in particular the N. African countries.